By Laurence Smith, Co-Founder, Greybeard Healthcare Consultants and Joe Connor, Greybeard Healthcare Expert in AI investment, Capacity Building and Management
March, 2026
In a recent article, Greybeard Healthcare explored the role of healthcare providers amid escalating international tensions and examined lessons from previous crises.
In the article, we touched on the importance of the supply chain in ensuring business continuity during times of operational unpredictability.
We have been contacted by several readers who have requested additional guidance on this vital topic. The purpose of this supplementary Think Piece (perhaps mindful of Elon Musk’s observation that “This supply chain stuff is really tricky!”) is to explore key principles and practices in further detail.
This issue is rapidly rising up the agenda for healthcare governance boards worldwide due to the complexity of many health-related supply chains – medical equipment, devices, supplies and pharmaceuticals, and their dependence on global energy supplies.
Risk identification SitRep (Situation Reporting)
Let us make the working assumption that the crisis has developed to an extent sufficient to trigger the establishment of the Command and Control Center, described in the previous article. An early priority for the Center is to secure visibility of the key supply chain risks.
This analysis requires supply chain (not just procurement) expertise, since failure might result from second- or third-tier suppliers to the firm’s primary vendors.
The inputs for the assessment can be triangulated from multiple sources, including direct contact with suppliers, artificial intelligence / LLM tools, and the knowledge and judgment of an expert panel comprising clinical and supply chain professionals.
The output typically takes the form of a dashboard in which critical hospital supplies are rated in how quickly alternatives could be mobilized in the event of failure (for example: one week rated as green (on track), two weeks as yellow (monitor), up to six weeks as amber (risk), and up to twelve weeks as red (critical). An important issue for the analysis to consider is that a second- or third-tier supply chain failure might have consequences throughout the marketplace, affecting both contingency vendors and those already engaged. For this reason, ‘green’ should be used where alternatives have the least possible risk of cross-contamination, for example, for reasons of geography.
Since crisis situations can gather momentum with frightening speed, it is not unreasonable for the Command and Control Center to require a minimum viable dashboard to be collated and presented to them within a single working week. We are aware of a number of AI tools that can generate much of the underlying data structures to meet this type of deadline and empower supply chain professionals to present the results with confidence.
Strategies in response to dashboard alerts
Identifying the areas of vulnerability is, of course, simply the essential first stage of managing the supply chain risks in an evolving crisis. Even more important is that it drives a strategic response.
No two crises develop in exactly the same way, but it is instructive to recall some of the most widespread healthcare responses to supply chain red and amber ratings during the coronavirus pandemic conditions of 2020-2021, when critical supplies were interrupted by factory closures and dramatic reductions in cargo activity.
At that time, possibly the most widely adopted response was to build resilience into vital supply chains, often by relaxing the just-in-time principles which had previously been the over-riding philosophy. At the time, Malcolm Harrison (Group CEO of the Chartered Institute of Procurement and Supply) said: “People are asking: what price would you put on resilience? If it costs a little bit more because you have to go for a local source of supply or you need to put a little more stock into your supply chain that you took out because you were so focused on being as low cost as possible, can you or can you not afford to do this?”
Other frequently observed responses during the pandemic included:
- Targeted financial support for ’ at-risk’ suppliers, for example, by paying upfront, or contributing to overheads
- Pooling critical resources and supplies with other local providers, especially where areas of supply vulnerability do not overlap
- Identifying contingency suppliers and paying them to maintain capacity and availability should the need arise, even if there is no guaranteed actual usage
- Accelerating the ongoing switch to digital procurement platforms
- Dusting off the force majeure clauses in contracts to understand precisely what they entailed
Stress testing
Stress testing can take a number of forms. Firstly, a structured facilitated workshop in which the key players assemble to roleplay their response to an evolving crisis.
Secondly, AI-based simulations; in the latter case, hundreds of alternative scenarios can be modelled and run simultaneously, with analysis to show where and how often points of failure were exposed.
In each of these cases, the key to an insightful result is agreement on the range of assumptions being tested; ideally, these should be reviewed by an independent party, perhaps including an actuary, to ensure the validity of the simulations is not undermined by implicit bias during the design phase.
Engagement and alignment with national frameworks
Healthcare provision is a critical element of the national infrastructure in any modern society. As a result, it should be reflected in any national government framework related to coordinated crisis action (in the UK government’s ‘Amber Book’, which sets out the institutional framework at central and devolved government level for handling emergencies, the topics ‘health’, ‘medical’ and related are referenced around thirty times). Leading hospitals in major cities, especially those at risk of natural or man-made emergencies, should:
- Regularly engage with relevant government departments to ensure all parties are aware of expectations and potential constraints
- Appoint a senior executive to work with the CEO as the key point of contact for governments during any emergency situation
- Contribute insight to ensure documents such as the Amber Book remain relevant, practical, and reflective of best practice.
Closing remarks
Jonathan Byrnes, who was a Senior Lecturer at the Massachusetts Institute of Technology and author of ‘How to Manage your Supply Chain Shock Waves’, once said that “Many supply chains are perfectly suited to the needs that the business had 20 years ago.” Although no crisis is ever welcomed, one of the side-effects can be that crisis management becomes a catalyst for more resilient, innovative and responsive partnerships between all those involved in delivering a continuous and reliable outcome.
For more information:
- Jonathan Byrnes and John Wass, ‘How to Manage your Supply Chain Shock Waves’, Chief Executive Magazine, May 2020
- Cabinet Office, ‘The Amber Book: Managing crisis in central government’, updated 28 April 2025
- Chartered Institute of Procurement and Supply, ‘What is the impact of Coronavirus on Supply Chains?’ podcast dated 21 April 2020
